Lunar phases
Yuan et al. (2006) reported lower returns around full moons than new moons across 48 countries. A 2025 working paper found no consistent effect across global equities, and crypto results varied with the window length.
Metrics
Celestial Cycles & Markets
People have long looked to the sky for clues about markets.
We compare lunar phases and Mercury and Venus retrogrades with market closes dating back to 2021 to see whether returns follow the patterns described in the lore.
Sky events and market returns
View yearly returns ↓Do these beliefs match the market record? Pick a date on the calendar or compare yearly returns.
Lunar phases
Belief Stocks are weaker around a full moon than around a new moon.
Three days on either side of each full or new moonMercury retrograde
Belief Trading gets muddled, judgment slips, and stock prices fall.
Mercury’s full retrograde windowVenus retrograde
Belief People rethink what assets are worth, putting pressure on overpriced ones.
Venus’s full retrograde windowOverlapping retrogrades
Belief Price declines deepen when both planets are retrograde at the same time.
Only the dates when both planets were retrograde
2026 sky calendar
Go to replay ↓Mercury and Venus overlap Oct 24 – Nov 13
- Full moon
- Last quarter
- New moon
- First quarter
- Mercury retrograde
- Venus retrograde
- Faint bar · Shadow period
Hover over a moon symbol or a retrograde bar for closes and changes. Select it to see the sky and chart.
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Exact retrograde times and shadow dates
| Planet | Retrograde begins (ET) | Direct again (ET) | Shadow period | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mercury 1 | Feb 11 – Apr 9 | — | ||
| Mercury 2 | Jun 12 – Aug 6 | — | ||
| Mercury 3 | Oct 4 – Nov 30 | — | ||
| Venus | Aug 31 – Dec 15 | — |
Why does the market look to the sky?
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01 / 05 Lunar phases
Do stocks weaken around a full moon?
Some studies compare returns around the full moon. Follow four assets from January’s full moon toward the new moon and see whether they move together.
Market closes
Last close
- S&P 500
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- Nasdaq
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- BTC
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- ETH
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First close = 100 · Faint lines show closes later in the replay
Market direction by year
Compare returns around full and new moons in the same year, and see how markets moved during retrogrades.
| Sky event | S&P 500 | Nasdaq | BTC | ETH |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moon phases · Median window return | ||||
| Full moon | +0.87% | +0.88% | -0.53% | +0.41% |
| New moon | -0.08% | -0.77% | -0.82% | -0.53% |
| Retrogrades · Compounded window return | ||||
| Mercury retrograde | -7.78% | -11.11% | +4.51% | +11.72% |
| Venus retrograde | -2.88% | -8.09% | -12.66% | -21.39% |
| Both retrograde | -1.65% | -3.5% | -6.44% | -8.13% |
How returns are calculated Each return compares the first and last closes in its window. The lunar comparison uses completed windows spanning three days either side of each phase. Retrograde returns are compounded in the year each window began. The overlap covers the dates when both planets were retrograde.
Five windows from 2026 play in date order. Dates between windows are skipped. The autumn scenes share one price baseline.
Research and recorded outcomes
Each study estimates a return difference in its own sample. The site records how the four assets moved in each observed window from 2021 onward.
Mercury retrograde
Qi et al. (2026) reported lower annualized returns during retrograde across stock indexes in 48 countries. Mahendra et al. (2021) reported a positive association in India’s Nifty 50 and BSE Sensex over 1998–2018.
Venus retrograde
We date retrogrades using Venus’s apparent motion as seen from Earth. The yearly table shows returns for years with an observed window.
Mercury and Venus overlap
We count only dates when both planets were retrograde. In 2023, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite rose, while BTC and ETH fell over the same window.
Other market customs
Lucky numbers and IPO dates in China
Listing codes with digits considered lucky appeared more often than chance would predict. Those listings had lower subsequent abnormal returns. A separate study reported short-term discounts for IPOs on inauspicious days and a later reversal.
Hong Kong feng shui and India’s Diwali session
CLSA published a lighthearted annual feng shui outlook for Hong Kong. India’s NSE announced a special Muhurat trading session for Diwali on November 8, 2026.
Sources and methodology
How returns are calculated
- Prices at the same time
- The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite use US market closes. BTC and ETH use Binance spot prices at those same timestamps.
- First and last closes
- Each return compares the first and last closes in the window. Full and new moons each show the median window return. Retrograde returns are compounded.
- The year of the event
- Returns are grouped by the year the retrograde began or the moon phase occurred. The current year uses completed lunar windows and retrograde closes through the latest observation.
Data sources
- Market closes and sessions · FRED · Binance · NYSE · S&P 500 supplemental source · KDP DAT
- The Moon’s illumination is interpolated between principal phases. USNO · NASA SVS
- The animation interpolates daily JPL planet positions. Shadow periods follow the astrology calendar. JPL Horizons · Cafe Astrology · NASA
- Planet portraits use color-processed spacecraft imagery. MESSENGER · Mariner 10
Price records by retrograde window
Returns compare the first and last available closes during retrograde. Windows with incomplete price coverage are marked partial.
| Event | Close dates (ET) | S&P 500 | Nasdaq | BTC | ETH |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mercury 1 | Feb 26 – Mar 20, 2026 | -5.82% | -5.38% | +4.10% | +5.40% |
| Mercury 2 | Jun 29 – Jul 23, 2026 | -0.43% | -2.64% | +7.30% | +15.38% |
| Mercury and Venus overlap | Oct 26 – Nov 9, 2026Partial | -1.65% | -3.50% | -6.44% | -8.13% |
| Full Venus retrograde | Oct 5 – Nov 9, 2026Partial | -2.88% | -8.09% | -12.66% | -21.39% |
Price records by lunar phase
Returns compare the first and last closes within three days of the phase date. The table shows Eastern time.
| Event (ET) | Close dates (ET) | S&P 500 | Nasdaq | BTC | ETH |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full moon · Jan 3, 5:03 AM | Dec 31, 2025 – Jan 6, 2026 | +1.45% | +1.31% | +5.52% | +8.94% |
| Last quarter · Jan 10, 10:48 AM | Jan 7 – 13, 2026 | +0.62% | +0.53% | +3.69% | +2.08% |
| New moon · Jan 18, 2:52 PM | Jan 15 – 21, 2026 | -0.99% | -1.30% | -5.30% | -7.80% |
| First quarter · Jan 25, 11:47 PM | Jan 22 – 28, 2026 | +0.94% | +1.80% | -0.31% | +2.49% |
| Full moon · Feb 1, 5:09 PM | Jan 29 – Feb 4, 2026 | -1.24% | -3.30% | -12.71% | -22.59% |
| Last quarter · Feb 9, 7:43 AM | Feb 6 – 12, 2026 | -1.44% | -1.88% | -6.53% | -6.74% |
| New moon · Feb 17, 7:01 AM | Feb 17 – 20, 2026 | +0.97% | +1.36% | 0.00% | -1.19% |
| First quarter · Feb 24, 7:27 AM | Feb 23 – 27, 2026 | +0.60% | +0.18% | +1.74% | +3.36% |
| Full moon · Mar 3, 6:38 AM | Mar 2 – 6, 2026 | -2.06% | -1.59% | -1.44% | -2.79% |
| Last quarter · Mar 11, 5:38 AM | Mar 9 – 13, 2026 | -2.41% | -2.60% | +3.19% | +3.37% |
| New moon · Mar 18, 9:23 PM | Mar 16 – 20, 2026 | -2.88% | -3.25% | -5.12% | -8.49% |
| First quarter · Mar 25, 3:18 PM | Mar 23 – 27, 2026 | -3.22% | -4.55% | -6.56% | -7.55% |
| Full moon · Apr 1, 10:12 PM | Mar 30 – Apr 2, 2026 | +3.77% | +5.22% | +0.64% | +2.06% |
| Last quarter · Apr 10, 12:51 AM | Apr 7 – 13, 2026 | +4.07% | +5.30% | +6.25% | +7.05% |
| New moon · Apr 17, 7:52 AM | Apr 14 – 20, 2026 | +2.03% | +3.24% | +2.79% | +0.80% |
| First quarter · Apr 23, 10:32 PM | Apr 20 – 24, 2026 | +0.79% | +1.77% | +1.75% | -0.44% |
| Full moon · May 1, 1:23 PM | Apr 28 – May 4, 2026 | +0.87% | +1.64% | +4.88% | +2.37% |
| Last quarter · May 9, 5:10 PM | May 6 – 12, 2026 | +0.49% | +0.96% | -0.77% | -2.70% |
| New moon · May 16, 4:01 PM | May 13 – 19, 2026 | -1.22% | -2.01% | -3.55% | -6.35% |
| First quarter · May 23, 7:11 AM | May 20 – 26, 2026 | +1.16% | +1.47% | -2.08% | -3.03% |
| Full moon · May 31, 4:45 AM | May 28 – Jun 3, 2026 | -0.13% | -0.24% | -10.84% | -10.48% |
| Last quarter · Jun 8, 6:00 AM | Jun 5 – 11, 2026 | +0.14% | +0.39% | +5.48% | +6.81% |
| New moon · Jun 14, 10:54 PM | Jun 11 – 17, 2026 | +0.35% | +0.82% | +1.09% | +3.18% |
| First quarter · Jun 21, 5:55 PM | Jun 18 – 24, 2026 | -1.90% | -3.93% | -4.75% | -7.08% |
| Full moon · Jun 29, 7:56 PM | Jun 26 – Jul 2, 2026 | +1.76% | +2.12% | +2.89% | +7.98% |
| Last quarter · Jul 7, 3:29 PM | Jul 6 – 10, 2026 | +0.50% | +0.61% | +0.28% | 0.00% |
| New moon · Jul 14, 5:43 AM | Jul 13 – 17, 2026 | -0.77% | -1.36% | +3.01% | +3.88% |
| First quarter · Jul 21, 7:05 AM | Jul 20 – 24, 2026 | -0.42% | -2.09% | -1.41% | -1.82% |
| Full moon · Jul 29, 10:36 AM | Jul 27 – 31, 2026 | +1.03% | +1.77% | -3.10% | -4.11% |
| Last quarter · Aug 5, 10:21 PM | Aug 3 – 7, 2026 | +2.07% | +3.00% | +1.71% | +2.60% |
| New moon · Aug 12, 1:37 PM | Aug 10 – 14, 2026 | +0.42% | +0.47% | -1.68% | +0.13% |
| First quarter · Aug 19, 10:46 PM | Aug 17 – 21, 2026 | -0.91% | -1.74% | +19.78% | +26.55% |
| Full moon · Aug 28, 12:18 AM | Aug 25 – 31, 2026 | +0.12% | +0.84% | -0.04% | +0.75% |
| Last quarter · Sep 4, 3:51 AM | Sep 1 – 4, 2026 | +1.14% | +1.56% | +3.21% | +1.52% |
| New moon · Sep 10, 11:27 PM | Sep 8 – 11, 2026 | -0.22% | -0.33% | -1.48% | +2.30% |
| First quarter · Sep 18, 4:44 PM | Sep 15 – 21, 2026 | +2.36% | +4.39% | +13.52% | +14.28% |
| Full moon · Sep 26, 12:49 PM | Sep 23 – 29, 2026 | -0.46% | -0.51% | -1.09% | +0.41% |
| Last quarter · Oct 3, 9:25 AM | Sep 30 – Oct 6, 2026 | +2.19% | +2.75% | +2.41% | +0.84% |
| New moon · Oct 10, 11:50 AM | Oct 7 – 13, 2026 | +0.05% | -1.21% | -0.16% | -2.44% |
| First quarter · Oct 18, 12:12 PM | Oct 15 – 21, 2026 | +0.17% | -0.04% | +2.55% | +1.70% |
| Full moon · Oct 26, 12:12 AM | Oct 23 – 29, 2026 | +1.27% | +0.88% | -0.53% | -2.41% |
| Last quarter · Nov 1, 3:28 PM | Oct 29 – Nov 4, 2026 | -0.41% | -1.71% | -0.88% | +3.60% |
| New moon · Nov 9, 2:02 AM | Nov 6 – 9, 2026Partial | +2.35% | +2.74% | -1.34% | -4.47% |
| First quarter · Nov 17, 6:48 AM | — | — | — | — | — |
| Full moon · Nov 24, 9:53 AM | — | — | — | — | — |
| Last quarter · Dec 1, 1:08 AM | — | — | — | — | — |
| New moon · Dec 8, 7:52 PM | — | — | — | — | — |
| First quarter · Dec 17, 12:42 AM | — | — | — | — | — |
| Full moon · Dec 23, 8:28 PM | — | — | — | — | — |
| Last quarter · Dec 30, 1:59 PM | — | — | — | — | — |